Predicting in Infinity Wars
- When to predict
- How to predict
- Predicting your opponents cards
- Playing randomly
I’ve made this because the developers asked for more community made guides. I believe I have a very good understanding of how to use prediction in Infinity Wars, but feel free to call me out on anything you disagree with. When to predict?
Do not just make a prediction play because you think something is likely to happen! You should be considering the whole risk vs reward of the scenario. This means weighing up three things.
1) The severity of the risk
2) The strength of the reward
3) The likelihood of it happening (this is still important)
Example: It is turn 3, you predict that your opponent will play his 3 cost commander (Kali) and you use ‘Death Ray’ on it.
- Risk: If you are wrong you will waste your whole turn and your death ray spell, meanwhile your opponent will spend his turn doing something else. You will be very far behind.
- Reward: If you are right you will trade 3 resources for 3 resources. You will both be even.
In this example the risk is very severe and the reward is very tame. Unless the odds of this happening are 100%, then this is probably not going to be a good play.
Obviously this isn’t an easy concept to apply, because every scenario is very complex. It’s very hard to work out the true value of the risks and rewards, even with the kali example above. If the Kali has the potential to completely destroy your board and create a game winning position for your opponent, then the risk vs reward is very different. It’s important to remember that while predicting is a risk, not predicting can also be a risk.
You also have to consider playing randomly. It is not correct to always make the same play, more on this below. How to predict
The best way to improve your predictions is just to play the game more. But each turn you should be asking yourself 3 questions.
1) What can I do? Looking at the cards you have and the state of the board
2) What do I think my opponent will do? Based on his purity combinations, number of cards in hand and his resources available
3) What does my opponent think I will do? Based on your purity combinations etc.
Knowing what your opponent can do is very important. I suggest reading this article:http://forum.lightmare.com.au/index.php?topic=65468.0
It will also be useful for knowing what your opponent thinks you’re going to do. It is very useful to know what your opponent is trying to play around because that will help you predict them.Predicting your opponent’s cards
Before turn 1 has even started, based on your opponent’s commanders you should have a pretty good idea of what is in his deck. Towards the end of a game, you know what cards your opponent probably has left in his deck, the likelihood of him drawing them increases every turn. Sometimes you can even work out exactly what is left in your opponent’s deck.
You can also predict the cards in your opponent’s hand. What has he played over the last two turns, what is he building towards? The easiest example of this is predicting Calamity. If your opponent pays 9 to get to 11 resources, it’s very likely that he has Calamity. But you can also work out the likelihood of your opponent having cards like Intimidating Ralley, based on his previous plays and risks taken.
You should ask yourself, what hasn’t my opponent played? Why didn’t he play Agent Coyle Primal Hunter on turn 5. Can I now assume that he doesn’t have it? If you can cross out loads of cards that would have been better for him to play, then you can work out what he is likely to be holding instead.
Did your opponent mulligan? If he didn’t mulligan, but hasn’t played any good cards yet, then he probably has good cards in his hand. Example: If a ‘Tinkercide’ player doesn’t play a 1 cost card on turn 1 and did not mulligan then they probably have a very good hand (watch out for strong situational cards like chain lightning or zomb-b-gone).
It’s worth noting that there are various glitches that let you see the cost of your opponents cards. I’m not going to tell you what they are, the developers are aware of them. Playing randomly
It is important to make it difficult for your opponent to read you, if you always make the ‘best play’ then your opponent will start predicting you. I can’t stress the importance of this enough, you will often have many good options to play and you shouldn’t always pick the best one, you should sometimes mix it up, just because.
Playing randomly can also encourage your opponent to make mistakes. A very extreme example of this: If I am using a triple WP deck I will sometimes attack my opponent’s fortress with 0 power ramp cards if I know that they will not defend. This is because, in the future, I want to encourage my opponents to place something in the defence zone when it’s not optimal for them to do so.
Playing randomly also helps you bluff things, this only works if your opponent is paying a lot of attention to you. A very easy example is bluffing calamity by paying 9. This will often encourage your opponent to go all out into the assault zone. Certain cards are very good at punishing your opponent for doing this (Primal Rage, Matry Golem, Cassial, Zushen, Mass Death etc.).
Playing different commanders. If you have two of the same commander, don’t always play the same one first. This is something I notice a lot of people doing, including some of the top players *cough Helios cough*.
Don’t always play your cards from your right. What I mean by this is when you have multiple characters that are the same, people like to move the card on their right into position first. Or if they have a single target buff spell, they’ll pick the card on the far right to buff. If I notice you doing this, I will punish you for it.
Don’t always use Aleta first/last. Different players have different preferences. Both can be punished by the card ‘Redirect’. Summary
- Don’t just make a play because you think your opponent is likely to do something, weigh up the whole risk vs reward first.
- Ask yourself:
o What can I do?
o What do I think my opponent will do?
o What does my opponent think I will do?
- Finally, play randomly.