First let me give you a raw information dump. 2,660 packs were tallied from 63 sources, resulting in 39,900 cards being cataloged! The breakdown was as follows:
Of those 218 cards were foils spread across all levels of rarity. There was not enough data regarding foils to report their rarity spread accurately, so it will not be included here.
For my percentage values, I will be using a 95% confidence level
. This means I’m 95% statistically certain that the actual numbers fall within the ranges I have calculated below. Higher confidence levels require wider ranges, and a 95% confidence level is pretty standard for these sorts of statistics. These aren’t life or death numbers.
Below are the statistical likelihoods for an individual
Ascension preorder card pulled between June 14th and June 18th 2014 to have each of the following rarity levels, along with the likelihood for it to have been foil. This gives no information regarding what a pack itself is likely to contain.
Legendaries: 0.25% - 0.35%
Epics: 1.45% - 1.70%
Rares: 7.06% - 7.57%
Uncommons: 26.48% - 27.35%
Commons: 63.42% - 64.36%
Foils: 0.54% - 0.55%
This yields roughly the following ratios between rarity levels. It should be noted however, that opening packs is not the only way to gain cards
. If using these numbers for trading between rarity levels, please consider that drafting also gives players cards at different ratios and upsets these “balances” to an unknown extent. These numbers are only for Ascension preorder cards pulled between June 14th and June 18th 2014.
Legendary / Epic: 1 / 5.2333
Legendary / Rare: 1 / 24.333
Legendary / Uncommon: 1 / 89.492
Legendary / Common: 1 / 212.44
Epic / Rare: 1 / 4.6497
Epic / Uncommon: 1 / 17.100
Epic / Common: 1 / 40.594
Rare / Uncommon: 1 / 3.677
Rare / Common: 1 / 8.7305
Uncommon / Common: 1 / 2.3739
Now this last part is very abstract and just a personal calculation of mine. There are no statistics to back this part up!
This is merely some math I do for myself to help me roughly ballpark values of draft decks to determine how many wins I need with them to make purchasing them “worth it”. This is based on the idea that a pack contains 15 cards and cost 5,250 IP, thus making the “average” cost of a card 350 IP. Using the ratios of cards, rough IP values can be calculated for each rarity level of card to give it an “average” value based on its rarity. This can be used to sum up the value of a draft deck based on the cards in it. Once again, this is just something I do with this kind of data. There’s absolutely nothing to say I’ve done this correctly at all.
The following formula was used in combination with the above ratios (without rounding) and then some algebra.
350 IP as average value of a card based on pack price * 39,900 cards =
120 legendaries * [value of legendary] +
628 epics * [value of epic] +
2920 rares * [value of rare] +
10,739 uncommons * [value of uncommon] +
25,493 commons * [value of common]
Legendary: 23,275 IP
Epic: 4,448 IP
Rare: 957 IP
Uncommon: 260 IP
Common: 110 IP